Sellers hesitant to list during the pandemic further accelerated California's inventory woes, bumping up home prices in the process. In September, the California median home price reached an all-time high of $712,430, a 17.6 percent jump year-over-year. Home sales remain strong, notably in the high end of the market, and that is projected to continue well into the year.
Inventory issues will persist in 2021. Sellers will eventually reemerge into the market once they recognize that homes are selling quickly and prices are rising. But a housing shortage persists in the state. California remains about 3 million homes short of what its population needs. Still, as more listings emerge, C.A.R. predicts price growth will moderate somewhat in 2021. Historically low interest rates, continued population growth, lack of new home development and significant lack of inventory will continue to drive our current real estate market through at least 2021.
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Unsurprisingly, in the midst of a global health crisis, buyers and sellers have placed increased importance on cleanliness and personal safety throughout the transaction. This focus on health standards isn't likely to disappear any time soon - many homebuyers and sellers hope procedures such as making hand sanitizer available throughout the house, providing sanitary wipes, and limiting the number of visitors in the house will remain in effect even after the pandemic.
And buyers are increasingly interested in wellness not only during the transaction, but in the homes themselves. Vertical living is not as desirable as it was before COVID. People want homes, they want yards, they want space. Having access to a home office for better work-life balance, an extra room for a home gym, a kitchen big enough to cook healthy meals-these features are nice-to-haves, they're becoming increasingly critical to buyers. Google search trends for the terms "buying a second home" and "buying a vacation home" reached a five-year high in July, jumping 235 percent annually. Home sales in vacation destination areas started accelerating in July 2020 and posted a 34% annual gain this past fall, NAR data shows.
C.A.R. data shows that sales in resort markets like Lake Tahoe, Lake Arrowhead, Mammoth Lakes and Palm Springs saw sales more than double during the second half of 2020 from where they were the previous year. While many of these buyers are newly minted work-from-homers seeking a new primary residence, many are shopping for vacation homes, figuring hotels won't be safe for some time now. Funds that may have once been allocated to travel expenses can now be funneled directly into the down payment. Virtual showing and closing solutions aren't new, but thanks to the pandemic, they're now ubiquitous. Buyers are growing increasingly accustomed to the Facetime walkthroughs and 3D tours, so much so that new listings without these features may give buyers pause. With the pandemic still underway, these virtual solutions show no sign of diminishing soon-and many REALTORS are likely to continue using them well after the pandemic ends.
Looking into the future, we see Zoom consultations as a continuing service. Zoom consultations have become a very safe way for REALTORS to share their value proposition and assess a potential buyer or seller's needs and motivations prior to meeting the face to face. There's nothing like having to spend all your time at home to make you fully grasp the importance of your living space. As soon as real estate was listing as an essential service last April, buyers with the financial wherewithal started competing for homes with more square footage, outdoor spaces, home offices and larger kitchens. CAR's monthly Consumer Housing Sentiment Survey also showed the percentage of consumers who thought it was a good time to buy a home actually increased with the onset of the crisis. More first-time buyers have entered the market, too, reaching the highest share in 10 years (a 38% market share), according to CAR data.
Mid-March to mid-April is the best time to hang the sale sign nationally, with homes selling 15% faster and for 2% more than the average sale, according to Zillow. The window tends to be a little earlier for sellers in warmer climates and a little later in colder climates.
"It's still predominately a seller's market, but less so than the last year or two," said Stan Humphries, Zillow's chief economist. "Some advantages are moving back to buyers; but largely and broadly ... it's still favoring the sellers." Here are four reasons you might want to list your home: 1. Low housing supply: Tight inventory is a main reason the ball is still in the sellers' court. The level of unsold homes was 4.6 months in February, according to the National Association of Realtors. That means it would take a little less than five months for all available inventory to sell. In a normal market, a five-to-seven month supply is considered balanced, said Danielle Hale, director of housing statistics at the NAR. Tight inventory tends to prop up home prices and can result in multiple offers and spur bidding wars. But at the same time, low supply is also keeping some sellers in their homes. "They aren't typically going to sell and then rent," explained Hale. If sellers aren't comfortable that they will be able to find a new home, it can keep them off the market. "There needs to be more construction in the market to ease the pressure," she said. 2. Fewer cash buyers: All-cash and investment buyers helped buoy home sales in the last couple years. And while the acceleration of home prices has slowed from its recent double-digit growth, experts still expect modest gains this year, but with fewer cash buyers. All-cash offers made up nearly 31% of sales in 2014, according to RealtyTrac, a 13% drop from 2013 and the lowest level in four years. "We are predicting a more stable and sustainable housing market in terms of price growth," said Ralph McLaughlin, Trulia's housing economist. "A lot of the growth we saw was from cash buyers, but now we are thinking those buyers will play less of a role." 3. Higher interest rates: While mortgage rates remain low, experts predict more buyers will enter the market in the coming months. The Federal Reserve's recent hint that higher interest rates are coming sooner rather than later could prompt buyers to start their house hunt in order to take advantage of lower mortgage rates. "When interest rates are thought to be escalating, we see a wave up activity with people getting off the sidelines," said Budge Huskey, president and CEO of Coldwell Banker Real Estate. 4. Rising rents: Rising rental prices could motivate tenants to make the leap into home ownership. Rent prices have risen 15% nationwide in the past five years in 70 metro areas across the U.S. and income growth hasn't kept up, according to NAR. "Every time there's an increase, it triggers the decision processes on whether [renters] should go into the market and buy," said Huskey. Getting more buyers into the market, especially first-timers, can help sellers feel more comfortable about their prospects. "It allows others to move up the chain in the market." But higher rents can be a double-edged sword, according to Humphries. "Renting is so darn expensive already it makes it hard to save for a down payment." When potential buyers drive up to your home, they’re full of hope.
They imagine themselves baking in the kitchen and their kids playing in the yard. Most of all they think: “Could this be my home?” Then they look closer. They see a mess by the driveway and the peeling paint near the roofline. Very quickly, they decide to keep driving—and keep looking. They don’t want your home. The exterior tells them the interior might have the same negative impact. They’ve already done research on your neighborhood and know your asking price. Now they’re just driving by to see if your home has that “it” factor—not an “ick” factor. Where do most sellers go wrong? Here are the main mistakes they make: 1. Ignore curb appeal How your home appears from the curb is extremely important. It’s the proverbial first impression. If your home looks inviting from the outside—the yard maintained, the garden manicured and the paint fresh—potential buyers will take an interest in it. If not, they might think the interior is likely unkempt, too—and they’ll move on. 2. Crowd the buyer When you sell your home, take yourself out of the picture. If you happen to be home, greet any potential buyers and then allow them to walk through your home undisturbed. Give them a chance to picture their couches in the living room or their dining set in the dining room. Let them have space to discuss what they’re seeing. Some sellers crowd a buyer, thinking that any newcomer will want all the details of every renovation and every nook. Don’t do this. Let the buyer be. You can always provide an info sheet to describe anything you feel should be mentioned. 3. Offer that ‘lived-in’ look Prospective buyers don’t want to see your clutter. It’s distracting and makes it hard for them to picture themselves in your home. A mess can often hide aspects of the home that would entice someone else to buy. When you’re selling, keep a tidy home and tuck away all your family photos and knickknacks. Try to create as many open, clear spaces as you can. Clean off counters and other surfaces. Even the toaster and blender should be stored away when you show your home. Ideally you will have time to give all the rooms a fresh coat of paint. You don’t need to hire an interior designer, but do look over your home with an unbiased eye. Is it warm and inviting? Pleasing to the eye? 4. Let odors lingerIf you smoke or have pets, your home will likely have an odor. Although you might be used to it, others may not appreciate it. Removing pet urine smells out of carpets takes care; you’ll likely need to use special solutions or a steam cleaner. With rugs, you may just have to buy new ones. Vinegar will work on most flooring. If you have a litter box, change it daily while showing your home. If you smoke, try to smoke outside as much as possible. Most nonsmokers are sensitive to the smell of smoke. Not only will they want to leave, they may also find the prospect of cleansing a home of smoke odor a turnoff. You may be so used to it that you hardly notice the odor, but others will walk out the door quickly. If there is a heavy smell in the home from years of smoking indoors, try washing the walls with vinegar. And don’t forget the curtains, shades and anything else that might collect the tar and resin from the smoke. For any unwanted smells, try baking soda. Sprinkle it around the house, on the furniture and on the carpets. Let it sit for a day so the granules can absorb the odors and then vacuum it all up. You may have to do this a few times. Think of it as vacuuming your way to a good deal on your home. New home sales for single families totaled 552,000 homes last month. That's the best monthly figure since February 2008 and an encouraging sign of the housing market's momentum.
It was nearly a 6% increase from July, which was also revised up, according to the Census Bureau. Still, the figure is a far cry from the historic average: the average monthly number of new home sales over the last 30 years is 706,000 according to Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at the Lindsey Group. "Today's figure is encouraging but we've got a LONG way to go," Boockvar wrote in a note to clients. Some economists believe there could be an uptick in home buying as prospective home owners try to lock in a low mortgage rate before the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in August was 3.9%, very low on a historical basis. A decade ago the rate was about 5.8% and 20 years ago it was 7.8%. The central bank is now expected to raise rates in either October or December. Take a look at this calculator: Click this Link
Mortgage credit availability easing says Fannie
The latest survey of mortgage lenders by Fannie Mae shows that lending restrictions eased in August. The poll of senior mortgage executives also reveals that they are generally more optimistic than general consumers about the economy, future home prices and the ease of getting a mortgage today. “For the first time in seven quarters, we see a pronounced increase in the share of lenders, particularly medium- and larger-sized lenders, reporting on net an easing of credit standards in both the GSE eligible and non-GSE eligible loan categories. This is a significant result in light of public discourse on credit availability and standards,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. Mortgage applications 7 per cent lower last week The level of new mortgage applications fell for the week ending Sept. 11 2015 compared to the week earlier. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s analysis found that on an adjusted basis there were 7 per cent fewer applications even taking into consideration the Labor Day holiday. On an unadjusted basis, the weekly index decreased 17 per cent; the Refinance Index decreased 9 per cent; the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 per cent; the unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 16 per cent. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 56.2 per cent of total applications from 56.9 per cent the previous week. ARM decreased to 6.8 per cent; FHA share increased to 14.2 per cent from 13.4 per cent; VA share decreased to 10.7 per cent from 10.8 per cent; and the USDA share remained unchanged at 0.8 per cent. Builder confidence still rising The National Association of Home Builders says that the confidence of its members continues to rise. In its latest Housing Market Survey in conjunction with mortgage lender Wells Fargo, the association’s index rose 1 point to 62 per cent confidence in the market for newly-constructed single-family homes. That’s the highest reading since October 2005. "NAHB is projecting about 1.1 million total housing starts this year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Today's report is consistent with our forecast, and barring any unexpected jolts, we expect housing to keep moving forward at a steady, modest rate through the end of the year.” Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West and Midwest each rose one point to 64 and 59, respectively. The South posted a one-point gain to 64 and the Northeast dropped one point to 46. |
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